Apple

UPDATE: Updated the title to be more representative of the content of the piece, will leave the link so previous links aren’t broken.

I’ve written previously that the current television market is antiquated and that no progress on the Apple TV (whether literally a television set or just a new set top box with far advanced capabilities) can be made until that changes. I strongly believe this to be the case and, if I had to guess, is the only reason we haven’t seen a new Apple TV that goes from being “just a hobby” to another leg on the Apple product “stool”.

Make no mistake, Apple has evaluated, designed, and strongly considered variations of a smart watch, but the tech media is blowing up with absolute certainty that “the iWatch” will be released. It won’t. The is no iWatch. I’m not saying it will never be released, but not in 2014, and likely not for at least a handful of years after that, if ever.

There have been compelling discussions on this. One by Craig Hockenberry at Furbo, and another by Ben Bajarin at Techpinions - both are excellent reads. Craig’s highlights a multitude of serious concerns for entering the wearable space and poses the quintessential question for Apple:

Just like I, and most tech writers/bloggers with dignity that seek content quality over clicks, have been saying all along - the iPad Pro that was so highly reported as “certainly” coming out in 2014 has been shelved. Apple works with a plethora of screen sizes, always has. There might be a bigger iPad one day, but that day is not soon.

Tesla, along with Apple’s recently announced CarPlay, are positioned to have a major influence for everyone planning to be driving a car in the foreseeable future. This is independent of whether or not you’re driving a Tesla or a car equipped with CarPlay.

Stuck in the (Technology) Dark Ages #

The auto industry has managed to remain uniquely positioned with respect to technology. Low to middle-end cars are the worst offenders, but in this class cost almost always comes first. Higher end cars are still behind, but not as far. You could argue that Ford has had their voice control service for a while now, other companies are on a similar trajectory, but the offerings are entirely underwhelming at best.

There is pessimism, then there is reality. This is the latter. I dream of a revitalized television experience, I’d pay top dollar for it, and I think it will happen… eventually. The major technology media outlets have taken hold of this idea and run with it far beyond reason. You’ve got business men and women theorizing and then just assuming “the engineers will figure out the details.” 

Consider this: the engineering side of it has been figured out for a while - brilliant smooth UIs, voice control, motion sensors, Bluetooth remotes, unified search, all of these exist today. That isn’t the problem. There are two major issues where the tech media has praised solutions yet I strongly disagree with their viability; when I say “major” I mean fundamentally damning to the entire notion.

There has been no shortage of speculation since news broke that Apple’s M&A representative spoke with Elon Musk about acquiring the increasingly famous auto maker. Josh Ong has made a great case for why it might make sense, so I won’t duplicate that.

The whole issue has some red flags that stand out to me as pretty major reasons an acquisition wouldn’t happen.

1. The auto industry is a low margin industry, especially on the low end. Tesla is not yet competing in the lower end market, so their margins are likely much closer to Apple’s than Hyundai’s, but Tesla has plans to expand into the $30,000 arena where there is simply no way to have Apple-like margins.
2. The whole situation seems Google-y. Apple’s wheelhouse is making beautiful and simple computing devices. An entry into the auto industry, despite Jobs’ reported desire to do so, is un-Apple-like. With that being said, the auto industry is so slow to adopt new technology that it would be quite easy to disrupt.
3. Setting aside the magnitude of the purchase being vastly beyond anything Apple has purchased before, the fact that they couldn’t make this purchase quietly is worth mentioning. Apple tries to keep those as quiet as they can, this one would be making headlines around the world.

No surprises here. The rumors of the 2014 iPad Pro were unfounded when they started, and I called them out as such. Now, only a few months later and half a year before the originally projected launch, analysts (in this case Kuo, but he hasn’t been the only one barking up this tree) are backing off of the notion that Apple will be releasing a 12" iPad this year.

It is well known that Apple tries a huge number of technologies, sizes, and materials as part of their standard R&D. It is certain Apple has experimented with a larger iPad, probably even has some pretty late-stage devices., but that doesn’t mean they’re releasing one soon.

The discussion on The Prompt last week (episode 31) sparked a series of thoughts for me regarding whether or not Apple is even considering an iPad Pro (12.9") and what exactly the device would be. Despite being an unlikely product for the near term, it is an interesting discussion.

Federico gives three scenarios: #

1. Just a larger iPad. Same iOS, same hardware features, larger (12.9") screen.
2. iPad Pro with substantial hardware and software feature changes.
3. Hybrid device, or “convertible” as Intel calls them.

Let’s be clear here, Federico isn’t making the case for any of the three options, this is merely a game of “what if” that we’re playing. I think it is also important to preface this analysis with an immensely relevant comment from the podcast -

30 years, a lot of progress. The Mac sold for $5,594 in today’s dollars and had 400KB of storage. 

If we reported on every screen size, material, product, and mold shape that Apple has tried, it would be like drinking from a fire hose. I’m not saying new screen sizes won’t appear in new devices eventually, but let’s be realistic.

• iPad “Pro” - Nope*.
• Larger iPhone - likely in the next 2 years. I would expect an announcement related to vector-izing graphics in the OS to be part of this.
• Smart “Watch” - I don’t see what Apple has to gain here. I think Gruber’s idea of a new iPod with a watch strap is more likely, but even that isn’t something I’d bet on. Once battery technology improves, I think this could change. Right now the batteries needed are far too large for a device worthy of the Apple brand.

*The time frame on the “nope” projection is 2-3 years. Not happening.