How Long Until Wireless Display is Open and Ubiquitous Like WiFi?

Intel has branded wireless display as WiDi, Apple has AirPlay, Google has Chromecast, and now Amazon has entered the market. The value of platform lock-in is tremendous for these companies, so the incentive to move to a more open standard isn't very high. But how much longer can that be the case?

This isn't comparing apples to apples, with wireless displays the control has to be tighter since only one person can have control of the screen at a time (or perhaps a small subset of people) unlike WiFi which can handle huge numbers. Yet the principle is similar. A protocol to dictate who is in control as an admin, who controls the screen, how the bit rate and quality are negotiated, and more. This protocol isn't unlike the 802.11 protocols that dictate the security, handshaking, and data transfer for WiFi.

At work we plug into 1024x768 projectors with a VGA cable from Dell laptops. That sentence could have been written in the late 90s and would have been relevant... ouch. 

I use AirPlay at home frequently. Many family members have Apple TVs that allow the same, but with Chromecast costing a third as much and Android sales booming, it stands to reason that cross platform wireless screen sharing is going to be in high demand soon*. Or are people (and companies) going to need to buy one of each? Google has gestured toward cross platform screen casting, but it is far from ubiquitous. What level of cultural adoption would be required for Apple to consider adding support for it at the expense of AirPlay?

I don't know how long it will take, but eventually something (probably) has to give. 

*I know Chromecast is cross platform, but iOS limits the support to apps that build in support themselves. I'm talking about native system-wide screen casting.

Apple-Comcast Negotiations Could Open the Flood Gates Like Apple-AT&T did in 2007

UPDATE: Updated the title to be more representative of the content of the piece, will leave the link so previous links aren't broken.

I've written previously that the current television market is antiquated and that no progress on the Apple TV (whether literally a television set or just a new set top box with far advanced capabilities) can be made until that changes. I strongly believe this to be the case and, if I had to guess, is the only reason we haven't seen a new Apple TV that goes from being "just a hobby" to another leg on the Apple product "stool".

Rumors are flying this week about ongoing negotiations between Apple and Comcast. This situation is reminiscent of the smartphone industry before the iPhone. Prior to the iPhone, the carriers held the power, they controlled the phone software, they controlled the "apps" (I have a hard time calling those apps when we know what real apps are like today), they controlled everything. Apple came in and took back control, because without that control they cannot own the user experience. Apple has mastered owning the user experience and has repeatedly offered products that succeed because of this curated, clean, and enjoyable experience. 

The television content/distribution market today is an extremely similar landscape to the smartphone industry before the iPhone. As I said in Reality Check: Disrupting the TV Industry, the content owners currently hold the power. Comcast is an owner and a distributor. Comcast is now in the role that AT&T was in back in 2006/2007 for the original iPhone.

If Apple plays their cards right the consumers stand to gain from this in truly magnificent ways. I say the consumer because if Apple succeeds, content owners will be working aggressively to add other partners (Amazon, Google, and Microsoft come to mind) to avoid letting Apple have too much power over them. With multiple partners and multiple platforms, the growth and advancement will come at a drastically increased pace. Consider the delta in smart phones from 2004 to 2007 and then again from 2009 to 2012; now imagine that growth in the television industry (not a one-to-one comparison, but this stands to have a flood gate effect like the iPhone created).

This also goes hand in hand with why I don't believe Apple needs to make an actual television set to transform the television industry. Their reach will be far greater if they offer this revolution in the form of a reasonably priced set top box, though I'd assume above their current $99 Apple TV price tag.

I believe we're on the cusp of a revolution in television, we just need the flood gate to open a little bit and the rest will take care of itself.

Apple Doesn't Need to Make a TV to Reinvent TV

News broke this morning, as reported in Haunted Empire: Apple After Steve Jobs, about Steve Jobs proclaiming confidently that Apple would not be making a television set. Specifically, when asked about Apple making a television set the conversation went like this:

Yukari says "Jobs didn't hesitate." He said, "No." 

"TV is a terrible business. They don't turn over and the margins suck," said Jobs. (Unlike iPhones which are wildly profitable and replaced every two years, a TV gets replaced every 8 years, and isn't all that profitable.)

There are two things to consider here. First, Jobs wasn't exactly shy about bashing an industry that he and Apple would soon enter (like 7" tablets, though the case is solid for a 7" tablet being far different from 7.85"). Second, and most importantly, Apple doesn't need to make a television set to revolutionize TV. They don't and they won't; it simply wouldn't make sense.

Apple as a company provides superb user experiences and beautifully designed products. It would be ideal to have everyone viewing the Apple TV revolution on some Jony Ive designed 4K screen with high end surround sound to match, sure. It just isn't realistic and the upside is limited.

The revolution in the television world will be with content delivery, content packaging, and content itself. Apple has had great success cultivating an ecosystem of content, but the traditional cable provider and television network situation has clearly proven challenging for even Apple to battle. Apple will not go all-in on the TV/content market until they have the control they demand. 

They have the UI figured out. They've got the set top box designed. They have the remote ready to go. I've got a hunch that their television plans have been ready for quite some time now, they're just waiting for the content deals to fall into place, then they push the button.